🖐 Macro Watch | Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2025

From Trump’s speech to NFP and ISM surveys, this week is packed with U.S. catalysts shaping Fed expectations.
Here are the most crypto-relevant macro events to watch this week:

🗓 Monday, September 29
🇺🇸 U.S. President Trump Speaks – 🕕 17:15

🗓 Tuesday, September 30
🇬🇧 GDP (QoQ - Q2) – 🕕 06:00
   💡 Consensus: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM - Sep) – 🕕 12:00
   💡 Consensus: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) – 🕕 14:00
   💡 Consensus: 95.3 | Previous: 97.4

🗓 Wednesday, October 1
🇪🇺 CPI (YoY - Sep) – 🕕 09:00
   💡 Consensus: 2.2% | Previous: 2.0%
🇺🇸 ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) – 🕕 12:15
   💡 Consensus: 53K | Previous: 54K
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) – 🕕 14:00
   💡 Consensus: 49.1 | Previous: 48.7

🗓 Thursday, October 2
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – 🕕 12:30
   💡 Consensus: 229K | Previous: 218K

🗓 Friday, October 3
🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM - Sep) – 🕕 12:30
   💡 Consensus: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) – 🕕 12:30
   💡 Consensus: 51K | Previous: 22K
🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Sep) – 🕕 12:30
   💡 Consensus: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3%
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep) – 🕕 14:00
   💡 Consensus: 52.0 | Previous: 52.0

🤔 Why it matters:
Jobs and wages data dominate the week, with NFP, unemployment, and earnings all critical for Fed policy signals. ISM surveys highlight the state of manufacturing and services, while central bank and CPI updates add cross-market drivers.

👀 Friday’s labor report is the top market mover, expect volatility across USD, bonds, and equities.

🔔 Mark your calendars. Markets are watching every word.

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