Simon Ateba
HOW TRUMP COULD BE BARRED FROM 2024 ELECTIONS: You might have heard that the Republicans are close to losing their lead in the House. This worry gets bigger with news that Congressman Mike Gallagher is stepping down on April 19. After he leaves, Republicans will barely have more members than Democrats. Let’s explain why this is important with some numbers.
1- There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
2- A party needs at least 218 members to control the House.
3- If there’s a tie, with each party having 217 members, and one person is independent (not in a big party), that independent person has a lot of power.
So, what’s the situation in the House now?
4- Republicans currently have 219 seats.
5- Democrats have 213 seats.
6- When Ken Buck, a Republican, leaves his job on Friday, Republicans will have 218 members. After Gallagher leaves, they will have 217.
7- There’s going to be an election to fill a Democrat’s empty seat on April 30. This will likely add another Democrat to the House.
8- By the end of April, Republicans will have 217 members, and Democrats will have 214.
9- It seems like Republicans have a slight edge with 3 more members than Democrats. But, 217 plus 214 is 431, not the total 435.
10- This means about 217 votes are needed to get things done, showing how important it is for all Republicans to stick together.
11- Traditionally, a few Republicans don’t support their own party's plans, which is a problem.
12—The bad news for Republicans is that Gallagher is leaving when it's too late to have a quick vote to replace him. This means his seat will be empty, a loss for Republicans. According to Wisconsin law, if he resigns before the second Tuesday in April, a special election would be held to replace him and bring in another Republican from the Red District. If he resigns as planned, his seat will remain vacant until after the November elections.
13- The good news is that there will be three special elections in May and June to fill some empty Republican seats, which might help them a bit.
14—But this help is only until June. If Republicans don't stay united and even one or two members break away, Democrats could take over the House and pass a resolution barring Trump from the 2024 presidential election, determining that he is an insurrectionist. The resolution will pass in the Senate, where Democrats have a slim majority of 51-49.
由
翻译自 英语
特朗普如何被禁止参加 2024 年选举：您可能听说共和党即将失去在众议院的领先优势。随着国会议员迈克·加拉格尔 (Mike Gallagher) 将于 4 月 19 日辞职的消息传出，这种担忧变得更加严重。在他离开后，共和党的党员人数几乎不会比民主党多。让我们解释一下为什么这对于某些数字很重要。
1- 众议院有 435 个席位。
2- 一个政党需要至少 218 名议员才能控制众议院。
3- 如果平局，每个政党有 217 名成员，并且有一个人是独立的（不是在一个大政党中），那么该独立的人拥有很大的权力。
那么，现在众议院的情况如何呢？
4- 共和党目前拥有 219 个席位。
5-民主党有213个席位。
6- 当共和党人肯·巴克 (Ken Buck) 周五离职时，共和党将拥有 218 名党员。加拉格尔离开后，他们将拥有 217 个。
7- 4 月 30 日将举行选举来填补民主党的空缺席位。这可能会在众议院增加另一名民主党人。
8-到4月底，共和党将有217名议员，民主党将有214名议员。
9- 共和党似乎比民主党多 3 名议员，略有优势。但是，217 加 214 是 431，而不是总和 435。
10- 这意味着大约需要 217 票才能完成任务，这表明所有共和党人团结一致是多么重要。
11-传统上，一些共和党人不支持自己政党的计划，这是一个问题。
12——对共和党人来说，坏消息是加拉格尔即将离开，而此时已经来不及快速投票取代他了。这意味着他的席位将空缺，这对共和党来说是一种损失。根据威斯康星州法律，如果他在四月第二个星期二之前辞职，将举行特别选举来接替他，并从红区引进另一名共和党人。如果他按计划辞职，他的席位将一直空缺到11月选举之后。
13-好消息是，五月和六月将举行三场特别选举，以填补一些空缺的共和党席位，这可能会对他们有所帮助。
14——但是这种帮助只能持续到六月。如果共和党不团结，甚至一两名议员脱离，民主党可能会接管众议院，并通过一项决议，禁止特朗普参加 2024 年总统选举，认定他是叛乱分子。该决议将在参议院获得通过，民主党以 51 比 49 的微弱多数获得通过。
https://x.com/simonateba/status/1771636974283035033?s=20
HOW TRUMP COULD BE BARRED FROM 2024 ELECTIONS: You might have heard that the Republicans are close to losing their lead in the House. This worry gets bigger with news that Congressman Mike Gallagher is stepping down on April 19. After he leaves, Republicans will barely have more members than Democrats. Let’s explain why this is important with some numbers.
1- There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives.
2- A party needs at least 218 members to control the House.
3- If there’s a tie, with each party having 217 members, and one person is independent (not in a big party), that independent person has a lot of power.
So, what’s the situation in the House now?
4- Republicans currently have 219 seats.
5- Democrats have 213 seats.
6- When Ken Buck, a Republican, leaves his job on Friday, Republicans will have 218 members. After Gallagher leaves, they will have 217.
7- There’s going to be an election to fill a Democrat’s empty seat on April 30. This will likely add another Democrat to the House.
8- By the end of April, Republicans will have 217 members, and Democrats will have 214.
9- It seems like Republicans have a slight edge with 3 more members than Democrats. But, 217 plus 214 is 431, not the total 435.
10- This means about 217 votes are needed to get things done, showing how important it is for all Republicans to stick together.
11- Traditionally, a few Republicans don’t support their own party's plans, which is a problem.
12—The bad news for Republicans is that Gallagher is leaving when it's too late to have a quick vote to replace him. This means his seat will be empty, a loss for Republicans. According to Wisconsin law, if he resigns before the second Tuesday in April, a special election would be held to replace him and bring in another Republican from the Red District. If he resigns as planned, his seat will remain vacant until after the November elections.
13- The good news is that there will be three special elections in May and June to fill some empty Republican seats, which might help them a bit.
14—But this help is only until June. If Republicans don't stay united and even one or two members break away, Democrats could take over the House and pass a resolution barring Trump from the 2024 presidential election, determining that he is an insurrectionist. The resolution will pass in the Senate, where Democrats have a slim majority of 51-49.
由
翻译自 英语
特朗普如何被禁止参加 2024 年选举：您可能听说共和党即将失去在众议院的领先优势。随着国会议员迈克·加拉格尔 (Mike Gallagher) 将于 4 月 19 日辞职的消息传出，这种担忧变得更加严重。在他离开后，共和党的党员人数几乎不会比民主党多。让我们解释一下为什么这对于某些数字很重要。
1- 众议院有 435 个席位。
2- 一个政党需要至少 218 名议员才能控制众议院。
3- 如果平局，每个政党有 217 名成员，并且有一个人是独立的（不是在一个大政党中），那么该独立的人拥有很大的权力。
那么，现在众议院的情况如何呢？
4- 共和党目前拥有 219 个席位。
5-民主党有213个席位。
6- 当共和党人肯·巴克 (Ken Buck) 周五离职时，共和党将拥有 218 名党员。加拉格尔离开后，他们将拥有 217 个。
7- 4 月 30 日将举行选举来填补民主党的空缺席位。这可能会在众议院增加另一名民主党人。
8-到4月底，共和党将有217名议员，民主党将有214名议员。
9- 共和党似乎比民主党多 3 名议员，略有优势。但是，217 加 214 是 431，而不是总和 435。
10- 这意味着大约需要 217 票才能完成任务，这表明所有共和党人团结一致是多么重要。
11-传统上，一些共和党人不支持自己政党的计划，这是一个问题。
12——对共和党人来说，坏消息是加拉格尔即将离开，而此时已经来不及快速投票取代他了。这意味着他的席位将空缺，这对共和党来说是一种损失。根据威斯康星州法律，如果他在四月第二个星期二之前辞职，将举行特别选举来接替他，并从红区引进另一名共和党人。如果他按计划辞职，他的席位将一直空缺到11月选举之后。
13-好消息是，五月和六月将举行三场特别选举，以填补一些空缺的共和党席位，这可能会对他们有所帮助。
14——但是这种帮助只能持续到六月。如果共和党不团结，甚至一两名议员脱离，民主党可能会接管众议院，并通过一项决议，禁止特朗普参加 2024 年总统选举，认定他是叛乱分子。该决议将在参议院获得通过，民主党以 51 比 49 的微弱多数获得通过。
https://x.com/simonateba/status/1771636974283035033?s=20
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