Still, no reason to run to the bunkers yet. there was a news article on daily mail a couple days ago about an american company developing a vaccine for the virus which will become ready for animal testing soon, so it seems like in the next 2 months they will come up with a cure for it.

in the meantime, the panic + the actual effect of the virus on human societies around the world (quarantined cities, airplane flights shutting down, people staying indoors etc..) will definitely affect world economy. so for us traders, the effect on oil prices (demand from china and the rest of the world) and stock market (people dumping stocks for gold in fear) is what we should keep an eye on.

so far both china and US have been injecting massive amounts of cash into their markets to prevent the effects of the coronavirus on their economy, so its expected for them to continue down that route.
the feds are likely to keep buying bonds to the tune of $60bn till March 12th, but given that they are not interested in rate cuts, we should wait to see what they will replace it with in upcoming months. obviously if they delay the announcement of the replacement or they don't announce anything at all, the worries will grow in the bond market, stock market and within buyers of USD in FX market.
China is also seems to be going down the route of giving tax incentives to industries affected by the virus. about $3.5bn of the total $8bn will go to Hubei province. last week China provided medium-term funding to banks and cut the interest rate it charges for the money as officials sought to protect the economy from the coronavirus outbreak. offered 200 billion yuan (US$28.6 billion) of one-year medium-term loans.
three days ago they cut the rates again on one year loans from %4.15 to %4.05 and on the 5 year loans from %4.80 to %4.75.
so they are also very likely to keep injecting more cash into their economy.

Comments

Be the first to add a comment