It increasingly seems as though the Iranian leadership is pursuing a strategy that focuses on incurring greater damage to the global economy instead of pursuing a deal. This is a strategic move, and let me explain why:
Under the first MOU, Iran had an ace up their sleeve that Washington did not seem to account for. As a result of the first blockade eventually putting a strain on Iran’s oil storage in onshore containers, Iran began to fill up vessels trapped inside the blockade line.
This meant that Iran, upon the blockades lifting, was able to rush out 80M barrels of oil in just 27 days. Enough for about 3 months of revenues.
But now Washington has gotten wise to this strategy, and is largely not allowing Iranian vessels to fill up. As a result though, this removed incentive for Iran to agree to a peace deal. Beyond this, Washington’s decision to revoke the oil sanction waivers under the MOU has also removed further future incentive since they likely hold minimal value to Iran now.
Therefore, Iran is increasingly favoring a strategy that seeks to put the global economy as close to the edge of the cliff as possible.
This is to ensure that when an eventual deal IS reached, President Trump is not able to simply change his mind 48 hours and go back to war, because doing so would immediately trigger an economic collapse.
That is Iran’s “hedge” that is being pursued.
But it is worth noting that this is not without risk though either. Every day that goes by, Iran’s own economy is damaged as well. While there has irrefutably been a significant rallying around the flag inside of Iran, risk compounds. Day 2 has more pain than Day 1. Day 15 has more than Day 2.
The second risk, and this is particularly dangerous, is it makes President Trump a cornered animal. With a rational President, one that is not so easily manipulated, they could stick with the correct decision to not escalate this conflict further because the downsides are simply too great. With President Trump though, as he becomes increasingly desperate to find an off-ramp where none now exist, Iran does risk significant escalation from the United States. Yes, Iran does hold escalation dominance, but pain is still pain.
The destruction of the MOU by the United States may have been far more catastrophic than many initially assumed. It doesn’t just “make the next deal harder”, it may very well mean that “the next deal will only come AFTER far more economic pain, regardless of Washington’s offer”.
Iran’s greatest deterrent to a resumption of hostilities may very well lie in taking the global economy right to the edge of disaster.
https://x.com/BrettErickson28/status/2082435791486132705
🔠Ellinne
Under the first MOU, Iran had an ace up their sleeve that Washington did not seem to account for. As a result of the first blockade eventually putting a strain on Iran’s oil storage in onshore containers, Iran began to fill up vessels trapped inside the blockade line.
This meant that Iran, upon the blockades lifting, was able to rush out 80M barrels of oil in just 27 days. Enough for about 3 months of revenues.
But now Washington has gotten wise to this strategy, and is largely not allowing Iranian vessels to fill up. As a result though, this removed incentive for Iran to agree to a peace deal. Beyond this, Washington’s decision to revoke the oil sanction waivers under the MOU has also removed further future incentive since they likely hold minimal value to Iran now.
Therefore, Iran is increasingly favoring a strategy that seeks to put the global economy as close to the edge of the cliff as possible.
This is to ensure that when an eventual deal IS reached, President Trump is not able to simply change his mind 48 hours and go back to war, because doing so would immediately trigger an economic collapse.
That is Iran’s “hedge” that is being pursued.
But it is worth noting that this is not without risk though either. Every day that goes by, Iran’s own economy is damaged as well. While there has irrefutably been a significant rallying around the flag inside of Iran, risk compounds. Day 2 has more pain than Day 1. Day 15 has more than Day 2.
The second risk, and this is particularly dangerous, is it makes President Trump a cornered animal. With a rational President, one that is not so easily manipulated, they could stick with the correct decision to not escalate this conflict further because the downsides are simply too great. With President Trump though, as he becomes increasingly desperate to find an off-ramp where none now exist, Iran does risk significant escalation from the United States. Yes, Iran does hold escalation dominance, but pain is still pain.
The destruction of the MOU by the United States may have been far more catastrophic than many initially assumed. It doesn’t just “make the next deal harder”, it may very well mean that “the next deal will only come AFTER far more economic pain, regardless of Washington’s offer”.
Iran’s greatest deterrent to a resumption of hostilities may very well lie in taking the global economy right to the edge of disaster.
https://x.com/BrettErickson28/status/2082435791486132705
🔠Ellinne
Comments
Be the first to add a comment
Log in to comment